2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Milan Puskar Stadium
Arizona @ West Virginia
Predicted scoreLean
Arizona
33.6
West Virginia
27.0
West Virginia win probability: 34%
Margin (West Virginia − Arizona): -6.7 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 60.6 (80% range 36 to 86)
Actual: Arizona 52 – West Virginia 31 (margin error 14.3, total error 22.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.57% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.54% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:27 PM | -7.0 | 52.8 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:24 PM | -7.0 | 52.7 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:14 PM | -7.0 | 52.7 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:21 AM | -7.0 | 52.7 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:20 PM | -7.1 | 52.6 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:18 PM | -7.3 | 53.3 | 32% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:29 PM | -10.3 | 53.8 | 26% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:41 PM | -8.7 | 55.1 | 29% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:06 PM | -10.1 | 55.2 | 27% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:37 AM | -8.5 | 55.1 | 30% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:14 PM | -8.5 | 55.1 | 30% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:07 PM | -5.8 | 60.1 | 37% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:05 PM | -6.7 | 60.6 | 34% |