2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ohio Stadium
Maryland @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreConfident
Maryland
10.8
Ohio State
40.6
Ohio State win probability: 97%
Margin (Ohio State − Maryland): 29.8 (80% range 10 to 50)
Total: 51.4 (80% range 30 to 75)
Actual: Maryland 16 – Ohio State 45 (margin error 0.8, total error 9.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.99% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.97% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.92% |
| 7 | 35 | 0.86% |
| 0 | 31 | 0.80% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:22 PM | 24.5 | 51.0 | 94% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:22 PM | 23.3 | 51.0 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:22 PM | 23.3 | 51.0 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:36 AM | 23.3 | 51.0 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:22 PM | 23.4 | 51.0 | 93% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:27 PM | 24.2 | 50.8 | 94% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:26 PM | 23.9 | 51.7 | 94% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:39 PM | 19.5 | 51.2 | 90% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:11 PM | 19.5 | 51.2 | 90% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:28 AM | 20.8 | 51.4 | 91% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:10 PM | 20.8 | 51.3 | 91% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:59 PM | 28.7 | 51.4 | 97% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:09 PM | 29.8 | 51.4 | 97% |