Predicted scoreLean
UConn
27.9
Temple
32.3
Temple win probability: 61%
Margin (Temple − UConn): 4.3 (80% range -17 to 25)
Total: 60.2 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: UConn 34 – Temple 20 (margin error 18.3, total error 6.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:24 PM | -3.9 | 60.6 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:21 PM | -3.9 | 60.6 | 41% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:05 PM | -3.9 | 60.6 | 41% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:34 AM | -3.9 | 60.6 | 41% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:24 PM | -3.9 | 60.6 | 41% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:25 PM | -4.0 | 60.1 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:21 PM | -3.2 | 60.5 | 42% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:47 PM | 0.5 | 60.0 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:58 PM | 0.5 | 60.1 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:43 AM | 0.9 | 60.0 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:58 PM | 0.9 | 60.0 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:12 PM | 4.7 | 61.7 | 61% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:45:57 PM | 4.3 | 60.2 | 61% |