2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · Joe Aillet Stadium
Louisiana @ Louisiana Tech
Predicted scoreToss-up
Louisiana
21.4
Louisiana Tech
23.8
Louisiana Tech win probability: 57%
Margin (Louisiana Tech − Louisiana): 2.4 (80% range -17 to 21)
Total: 45.2 (80% range 24 to 68)
Actual: Louisiana 31 – Louisiana Tech 32 (margin error 1.4, total error 17.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.94% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.88% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.74% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:18 PM | 2.9 | 49.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:27 PM | 2.9 | 49.1 | 57% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:29 PM | 2.9 | 49.1 | 57% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:38 AM | 2.9 | 49.1 | 57% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:15 PM | 3.0 | 49.1 | 57% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:32 PM | 3.0 | 49.6 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:17 PM | 5.6 | 49.5 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:36 PM | 0.5 | 47.0 | 51% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:15 PM | 0.5 | 47.0 | 51% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:27 AM | 0.9 | 47.1 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:07 PM | 0.9 | 47.0 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:55 PM | 0.1 | 43.5 | 50% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:12 PM | 2.4 | 45.2 | 57% |