2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 4:00 AM · FirstBank Stadium
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
Predicted scoreToss-up
Ole Miss
29.0
Vanderbilt
28.4
Vanderbilt win probability: 48%
Margin (Vanderbilt − Ole Miss): -0.6 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 57.4 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Ole Miss 52 – Vanderbilt 17 (margin error 34.4, total error 11.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:26 PM | 1.8 | 62.9 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:24 PM | 1.8 | 62.9 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:14 PM | 1.8 | 62.9 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:22 AM | 1.8 | 62.9 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:19 PM | 1.9 | 62.9 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:19 PM | 1.5 | 61.1 | 53% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:30 PM | 3.6 | 62.8 | 59% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:42 PM | -0.1 | 60.0 | 50% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:09 PM | -0.1 | 60.1 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:37 AM | -0.2 | 60.0 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:14 PM | -0.1 | 60.0 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:31:03 PM | -2.0 | 59.1 | 45% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:09 PM | -0.6 | 57.4 | 48% |