2026 Week 6 · Oct 10, 2026, 1:00 AM · Maverik Stadium
Washington State @ Utah State
Predicted scoreLean
Washington State
21.5
Utah State
27.9
Utah State win probability: 65%
Margin (Utah State − Washington State): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Washington State 16 – Utah State 17 (margin error 5.4, total error 16.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:25 PM | -0.3 | 55.3 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:19 PM | -0.3 | 55.3 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:29:03 PM | -0.3 | 55.3 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:45 AM | -0.3 | 55.3 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:14 PM | -0.4 | 55.3 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:15 PM | -1.9 | 55.2 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:08 PM | 0.5 | 54.0 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:33 PM | 5.8 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:39:19 PM | 5.8 | 52.9 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:25 AM | 6.0 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:37:04 PM | 6.0 | 52.8 | 65% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:50 PM | 3.9 | 48.8 | 60% |
| 10/4/2026, 3:46:02 PM | 6.4 | 49.4 | 65% |