Predicted scoreConfident
Indiana
41.7
Rutgers
16.3
Rutgers win probability: 5%
Margin (Rutgers − Indiana): -25.4 (80% range -46 to -4)
Total: 58.0 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Indiana 47 – Rutgers 15 (margin error 6.6, total error 4.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 10 | 0.78% |
| 38 | 7 | 0.74% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 45 | 7 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:08 PM | -24.2 | 62.0 | 7% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | -24.2 | 62.0 | 7% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:53 PM | -24.2 | 62.0 | 7% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:08 AM | -24.3 | 62.0 | 7% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:08 PM | -24.2 | 62.0 | 7% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:04 PM | -23.7 | 60.8 | 7% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:02 PM | -33.5 | 60.5 | 2% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:53 PM | -33.6 | 59.2 | 2% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:55 PM | -34.2 | 59.3 | 2% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:04 AM | -33.8 | 59.0 | 2% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:45 PM | -33.8 | 59.0 | 2% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:41 PM | -25.4 | 58.0 | 5% |