2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 10:00 PM · Canvas Stadium
Oregon State @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon State
28.8
Colorado State
29.5
Colorado State win probability: 52%
Margin (Colorado State − Oregon State): 0.7 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 58.3 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: Oregon State 56 – Colorado State 26 (margin error 30.7, total error 23.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:02 PM | 3.9 | 54.3 | 60% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:16 PM | 3.9 | 54.3 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:52 PM | 3.9 | 54.3 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:07 AM | 3.9 | 54.3 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:08 PM | 3.9 | 54.3 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:03 PM | 3.6 | 54.2 | 59% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:54:00 PM | 7.5 | 55.7 | 68% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:55 PM | 5.0 | 55.9 | 62% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:56 PM | 4.9 | 56.0 | 62% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:16 AM | 5.3 | 55.9 | 63% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:29 PM | 5.3 | 55.9 | 63% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:34 PM | 0.7 | 58.3 | 52% |