Predicted scoreToss-up
Syracuse
28.2
UConn
28.2
UConn win probability: 50%
Margin (UConn − Syracuse): -0.0 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 56.4 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Syracuse 42 – UConn 41 (margin error 1.0, total error 26.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.57% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:11 PM | 3.6 | 57.0 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:15 PM | 3.6 | 57.0 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:50 PM | 3.6 | 57.0 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:04 AM | 3.5 | 57.0 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:06 PM | 3.7 | 57.0 | 59% |
| 9/8/2026, 6:00:00 PM | 3.6 | 57.1 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:58 PM | 3.6 | 57.2 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:56 PM | 0.7 | 55.6 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:51 PM | 0.8 | 55.5 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:58 AM | 0.8 | 55.5 | 52% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:36 PM | 0.8 | 55.5 | 52% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:22 PM | -0.0 | 56.4 | 50% |