Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
27.5
Illinois
37.1
Illinois win probability: 72%
Margin (Illinois − Purdue): 9.6 (80% range -11 to 31)
Total: 64.6 (80% range 38 to 92)
Actual: Purdue 24 – Illinois 17 (margin error 16.6, total error 23.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 31 | 38 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 35 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.56% |
| 24 | 38 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:03 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:24 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:58 AM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:59 PM | 11.0 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:46 PM | 10.8 | 55.5 | 75% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:42 PM | 11.8 | 56.6 | 76% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:13 PM | 9.9 | 61.9 | 72% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:48 PM | 10.0 | 61.9 | 72% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:15 AM | 10.2 | 62.0 | 73% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:28 PM | 10.2 | 62.0 | 73% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:34 PM | 9.6 | 64.6 | 72% |