Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
22.5
Illinois
33.5
Illinois win probability: 75%
Margin (Illinois − Purdue): 10.9 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 56.0 (80% range 33 to 81)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:03 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:24 PM | 10.9 | 56.0 | 75% |