2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yager Stadium
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreLikely
Bowling Green
19.4
Miami (OH)
29.8
Miami (OH) win probability: 75%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Bowling Green): 10.4 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 49.2 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Bowling Green 24 – Miami (OH) 20 (margin error 14.4, total error 5.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | 8.1 | 48.2 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | 8.1 | 48.2 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:46 PM | 8.1 | 48.3 | 70% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:46:02 AM | 8.1 | 48.3 | 70% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:04 PM | 8.1 | 48.3 | 70% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:35 PM | 7.8 | 47.4 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:30 PM | 3.1 | 51.0 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:14 PM | 6.7 | 53.3 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:36 PM | 6.7 | 53.2 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:13 AM | 7.2 | 53.2 | 67% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:49 PM | 7.2 | 53.2 | 67% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:26 PM | 10.4 | 49.2 | 75% |