2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yager Stadium
Bowling Green @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreLean
Bowling Green
20.1
Miami (OH)
28.2
Miami (OH) win probability: 70%
Margin (Miami (OH) − Bowling Green): 8.1 (80% range -11 to 28)
Total: 48.3 (80% range 27 to 72)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 10 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 28 | 0.73% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | 8.1 | 48.2 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | 8.1 | 48.2 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:46 PM | 8.1 | 48.3 | 70% |