Predicted scoreToss-up
Florida
28.2
Missouri
26.7
Missouri win probability: 46%
Margin (Missouri − Florida): -1.4 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 54.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Florida 17 – Missouri 45 (margin error 29.4, total error 7.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:06 PM | 6.5 | 48.5 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | 6.5 | 48.5 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:35 PM | 6.5 | 48.5 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:36 AM | 6.5 | 48.5 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:02 PM | 6.6 | 48.5 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:51 PM | 6.5 | 47.8 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:33 PM | 3.1 | 51.5 | 58% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:04 PM | 5.6 | 51.2 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:38 PM | 5.6 | 51.3 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:11 AM | 5.7 | 51.3 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:52 PM | 5.7 | 51.3 | 64% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:30 PM | -1.4 | 54.9 | 46% |