2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Arizona Stadium
Cincinnati @ Arizona
Predicted scoreToss-up
Cincinnati
27.8
Arizona
31.6
Arizona win probability: 59%
Margin (Arizona − Cincinnati): 3.8 (80% range -17 to 24)
Total: 59.4 (80% range 34 to 86)
Actual: Cincinnati 7 – Arizona 34 (margin error 23.2, total error 18.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.59% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.58% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.58% |
| 31 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:59 PM | 8.6 | 55.1 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:12 PM | 8.6 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:29 PM | 8.6 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:41 AM | 8.7 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:04 PM | 8.6 | 55.0 | 70% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:42 PM | 8.6 | 54.6 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:38 PM | 6.7 | 54.7 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:06 PM | 6.9 | 57.1 | 66% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:46 PM | 6.9 | 57.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:06 AM | 6.9 | 57.1 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:46 PM | 6.9 | 57.1 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:43 PM | 3.8 | 59.4 | 59% |