2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Raymond James Stadium
Temple @ South Florida
Predicted scoreLikely
Temple
23.9
South Florida
34.8
South Florida win probability: 75%
Margin (South Florida − Temple): 10.9 (80% range -10 to 32)
Total: 58.7 (80% range 34 to 84)
Actual: Temple 17 – South Florida 13 (margin error 14.9, total error 28.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.57% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.56% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.56% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:10 PM | 18.8 | 58.1 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:15 PM | 18.8 | 58.0 | 87% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:40 PM | 18.8 | 58.0 | 87% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:54 AM | 18.7 | 58.0 | 87% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:54 PM | 18.8 | 58.0 | 87% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:48 PM | 18.1 | 57.9 | 87% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:45 PM | 16.2 | 57.0 | 84% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:03 PM | 15.8 | 58.1 | 84% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:29 PM | 15.9 | 58.1 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:01 AM | 16.0 | 58.1 | 84% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:43 PM | 16.0 | 58.1 | 84% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:38 PM | 10.9 | 58.7 | 75% |