2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Eastern Michigan @ Massachusetts
Predicted scoreLean
Eastern Michigan
22.4
Massachusetts
28.7
Massachusetts win probability: 66%
Margin (Massachusetts − Eastern Michigan): 6.4 (80% range -14 to 27)
Total: 51.1 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Eastern Michigan 38 – Massachusetts 14 (margin error 30.4, total error 0.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:05 PM | -13.8 | 57.2 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:06 PM | -13.8 | 57.2 | 20% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:38 PM | -13.8 | 57.2 | 20% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:48 AM | -13.8 | 57.2 | 20% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:57 PM | -13.8 | 57.2 | 20% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:49 PM | -14.9 | 56.8 | 18% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:46 PM | -3.8 | 52.3 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:15 PM | -1.1 | 51.7 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:33 PM | -1.3 | 52.1 | 47% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:09 AM | -0.8 | 52.1 | 48% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:26 PM | -0.8 | 52.1 | 48% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:27 PM | 6.4 | 51.1 | 66% |