2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Georgia Southern
26.5
Coastal Carolina
23.9
Coastal Carolina win probability: 44%
Margin (Coastal Carolina − Georgia Southern): -2.6 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 50.4 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Georgia Southern 31 – Coastal Carolina 24 (margin error 4.4, total error 4.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 21 | 0.82% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 21 | 21 | 0.75% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:01 PM | -0.5 | 51.6 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:08 PM | -0.5 | 51.6 | 49% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:47 PM | -0.5 | 51.6 | 49% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:52 AM | -0.5 | 51.6 | 49% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:10 PM | -0.5 | 51.6 | 49% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:34 PM | -0.3 | 51.7 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:29 PM | 0.7 | 52.6 | 52% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:19 PM | -0.4 | 49.2 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:32 PM | -0.4 | 49.1 | 49% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:48 AM | 0.1 | 49.2 | 50% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:31 PM | 0.1 | 49.1 | 50% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:35 PM | -2.6 | 50.4 | 44% |