Predicted scoreLikely
Memphis
33.0
Charlotte
17.7
Charlotte win probability: 16%
Margin (Charlotte − Memphis): -15.3 (80% range -35 to 4)
Total: 50.7 (80% range 28 to 74)
Actual: Memphis 59 – Charlotte 8 (margin error 35.7, total error 16.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.81% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 14 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:01 PM | -12.3 | 51.0 | 22% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:10 PM | -12.3 | 51.0 | 22% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:42 PM | -12.2 | 51.0 | 22% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:53 AM | -12.3 | 51.0 | 22% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:55 PM | -12.2 | 51.0 | 22% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:57 PM | -12.2 | 51.9 | 22% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:56 PM | -14.4 | 52.2 | 18% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:17 PM | -12.8 | 54.4 | 21% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:26 PM | -12.9 | 54.8 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:12 AM | -12.8 | 54.8 | 21% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:48 PM | -12.8 | 54.8 | 21% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:29 PM | -15.3 | 50.7 | 16% |