2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Sanford Stadium
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Predicted scoreConfident
Vanderbilt
16.9
Georgia
33.7
Georgia win probability: 86%
Margin (Georgia − Vanderbilt): 16.7 (80% range -3 to 37)
Total: 50.6 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Vanderbilt 14 – Georgia 38 (margin error 7.3, total error 1.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.75% |
| 7 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:02 PM | 5.0 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:14 PM | 5.0 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:35 PM | 5.0 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:55 AM | 5.0 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:02 PM | 5.0 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:37 PM | 4.9 | 59.8 | 62% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:35 PM | 4.2 | 59.5 | 60% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:02 PM | 10.8 | 54.7 | 75% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:40 PM | 10.7 | 54.7 | 75% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:53 AM | 10.9 | 54.8 | 76% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:37 PM | 10.9 | 54.8 | 76% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:23 PM | 16.7 | 50.6 | 86% |