2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Baylor @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreLikely
Baylor
23.1
Arizona State
31.9
Arizona State win probability: 71%
Margin (Arizona State − Baylor): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 55.0 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:59 PM | 8.8 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 8.8 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:31 PM | 8.9 | 55.0 | 71% |