2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Mountain America Stadium
Baylor @ Arizona State
Predicted scoreLean
Baylor
21.3
Arizona State
25.7
Arizona State win probability: 61%
Margin (Arizona State − Baylor): 4.4 (80% range -14 to 24)
Total: 47.0 (80% range 26 to 70)
Actual: Baylor 55 – Arizona State 19 (margin error 40.4, total error 27.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.86% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.83% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 14 | 0.69% |
| 14 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:59 PM | 8.8 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:07 PM | 8.8 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:31 PM | 8.9 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:40 AM | 8.9 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:03 PM | 8.9 | 55.0 | 71% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:40 PM | 8.5 | 54.5 | 70% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:36 PM | 7.0 | 53.9 | 67% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:05 PM | 5.6 | 53.5 | 64% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:30 PM | 5.6 | 53.5 | 64% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:06 AM | 6.4 | 53.6 | 66% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:45 PM | 6.4 | 53.6 | 66% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:43 PM | 4.4 | 47.0 | 61% |