Predicted scoreLikely
Arkansas
21.0
Texas A&M
32.8
Texas A&M win probability: 77%
Margin (Texas A&M − Arkansas): 11.8 (80% range -8 to 32)
Total: 53.8 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Arkansas 7 – Texas A&M 34 (margin error 15.2, total error 12.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.82% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:10 PM | 9.4 | 59.1 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:13 PM | 9.4 | 59.1 | 72% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:33 PM | 9.4 | 59.1 | 72% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:39 AM | 9.4 | 59.1 | 72% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:01 PM | 9.4 | 59.1 | 72% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:38 PM | 9.2 | 58.9 | 71% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:32 PM | 13.5 | 55.2 | 80% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:51 PM | 14.2 | 52.8 | 81% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:39 PM | 14.1 | 52.8 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:57:49 AM | 14.2 | 53.0 | 81% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:41 PM | 14.2 | 53.0 | 81% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:36 PM | 11.8 | 53.8 | 77% |