2026 Week 5 · Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 AM · Folsom Field
Texas Tech @ Colorado
Predicted scoreLikely
Texas Tech
28.3
Colorado
19.1
Colorado win probability: 28%
Margin (Colorado − Texas Tech): -9.2 (80% range -29 to 10)
Total: 47.3 (80% range 26 to 70)
Actual: Texas Tech 29 – Colorado 7 (margin error 12.8, total error 11.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:01 PM | -10.8 | 49.0 | 24% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:12 PM | -10.8 | 49.0 | 24% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:28 PM | -10.8 | 49.0 | 24% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:42 AM | -10.8 | 49.0 | 25% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:03:11 PM | -10.9 | 49.0 | 24% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:43 PM | -11.1 | 48.3 | 24% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:40 PM | -8.8 | 47.3 | 28% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:07 PM | -6.2 | 48.4 | 35% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:45 PM | -6.2 | 48.5 | 34% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:02 AM | -6.0 | 48.4 | 35% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:41 PM | -6.0 | 48.4 | 35% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:40 PM | -9.2 | 47.3 | 28% |