2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 11:00 PM · Lane Stadium
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Predicted scoreLean
Pittsburgh
30.7
Virginia Tech
24.0
Virginia Tech win probability: 34%
Margin (Virginia Tech − Pittsburgh): -6.8 (80% range -28 to 14)
Total: 54.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Pittsburgh 35 – Virginia Tech 33 (margin error 4.8, total error 13.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.58% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.57% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:18 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:34 AM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:54 PM | -4.7 | 52.4 | 39% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:28 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:27 PM | -9.0 | 54.2 | 29% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:00 PM | -3.4 | 53.7 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:28 PM | -3.5 | 54.2 | 41% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:00 AM | -3.4 | 54.1 | 42% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:33 PM | -3.4 | 54.1 | 42% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:16 PM | -6.8 | 54.7 | 34% |