2026 Week 5 · Oct 2, 2026, 11:00 PM · Lane Stadium
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech
Predicted scoreLean
Pittsburgh
28.6
Virginia Tech
23.8
Virginia Tech win probability: 38%
Margin (Virginia Tech − Pittsburgh): -4.8 (80% range -25 to 15)
Total: 52.4 (80% range 30 to 76)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:12 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:18 PM | -4.8 | 52.4 | 38% |