Predicted scoreLean
Liberty
29.5
Delaware
24.0
Delaware win probability: 36%
Margin (Delaware − Liberty): -5.6 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 30 to 79)
Actual: Liberty 30 – Delaware 14 (margin error 10.4, total error 9.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 21 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:55:13 PM | 0.1 | 55.9 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:04 PM | 0.1 | 55.9 | 50% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:18 PM | 0.0 | 55.9 | 50% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:33 AM | 0.0 | 55.9 | 50% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:53 PM | -0.0 | 55.9 | 50% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:29 PM | -0.0 | 56.2 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:26 PM | -1.9 | 56.6 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:57:00 PM | 3.9 | 51.6 | 60% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:28 PM | 3.9 | 51.7 | 60% |
| 9/27/2026, 11:58:00 AM | 4.2 | 51.7 | 61% |
| 9/27/2026, 3:36:34 PM | 4.2 | 51.7 | 61% |
| 10/1/2026, 5:30:16 PM | -5.6 | 53.5 | 36% |