2026 Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl
Oregon State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreLean
Oregon State
29.4
UTEP
21.7
UTEP win probability: 31%
Margin (UTEP − Oregon State): -7.7 (80% range -28 to 12)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Oregon State 33 – UTEP 7 (margin error 18.3, total error 11.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.92% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.63% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | -2.3 | 49.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | -2.3 | 49.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:14 PM | -2.3 | 49.4 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:08 AM | -2.1 | 49.2 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:52 PM | -2.5 | 48.9 | 44% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:25 PM | -2.7 | 49.7 | 43% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:21 PM | -6.6 | 51.0 | 33% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:47 PM | -8.1 | 50.9 | 30% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:25 PM | -7.7 | 51.2 | 31% |