2026 Week 4 · Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 AM · Sun Bowl
Oregon State @ UTEP
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oregon State
25.8
UTEP
23.5
UTEP win probability: 44%
Margin (UTEP − Oregon State): -2.3 (80% range -22 to 17)
Total: 49.4 (80% range 27 to 73)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 17 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.81% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.72% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:57 PM | -2.3 | 49.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:03 PM | -2.3 | 49.3 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:14 PM | -2.3 | 49.4 | 44% |