2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 11:30 PM · Gesa Field
Arizona @ Washington State
Predicted scoreLean
Arizona
27.5
Washington State
23.3
Washington State win probability: 40%
Margin (Washington State − Arizona): -4.2 (80% range -24 to 15)
Total: 50.8 (80% range 28 to 75)
Actual: Arizona 34 – Washington State 24 (margin error 5.8, total error 7.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.80% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.67% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:58 PM | -0.8 | 52.4 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:05:02 PM | -0.9 | 52.5 | 48% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:12 PM | -0.9 | 52.4 | 48% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:06 AM | -0.9 | 52.4 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:51 PM | -0.8 | 52.5 | 48% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:23 PM | -1.3 | 51.2 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:19 PM | -2.0 | 50.8 | 45% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:48 PM | -3.6 | 51.0 | 41% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:57 PM | -4.2 | 50.8 | 40% |