Predicted scoreLikely
Colorado
21.9
Baylor
30.7
Baylor win probability: 71%
Margin (Baylor − Colorado): 8.9 (80% range -11 to 29)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Colorado 13 – Baylor 23 (margin error 1.1, total error 16.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.67% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 28 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:46 PM | 5.0 | 55.3 | 62% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | 5.1 | 55.3 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:41 PM | 5.2 | 55.4 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:55 AM | 5.3 | 55.4 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:35 PM | 5.0 | 55.1 | 62% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:13 PM | 3.8 | 54.6 | 60% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:01 PM | 6.7 | 52.5 | 66% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:26 PM | 7.8 | 52.7 | 69% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:14 PM | 8.9 | 52.6 | 71% |