2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Virginia Tech @ Boston College
Predicted scoreLean
Virginia Tech
31.6
Boston College
23.7
Boston College win probability: 31%
Margin (Boston College − Virginia Tech): -7.9 (80% range -28 to 13)
Total: 55.3 (80% range 31 to 80)
Actual: Virginia Tech 21 – Boston College 14 (margin error 0.9, total error 20.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.64% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:46 PM | 0.9 | 55.6 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | 0.8 | 55.6 | 51% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:51 PM | 0.8 | 55.7 | 51% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:56 AM | 0.8 | 55.6 | 51% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:46 PM | 0.9 | 55.5 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:07 PM | -0.4 | 55.4 | 49% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:12 PM | -1.6 | 53.6 | 46% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:25 PM | -7.3 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:14 PM | -7.9 | 55.3 | 31% |