2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Milan Puskar Stadium
Oklahoma State @ West Virginia
Predicted scoreToss-up
Oklahoma State
27.5
West Virginia
28.7
West Virginia win probability: 53%
Margin (West Virginia − Oklahoma State): 1.2 (80% range -20 to 22)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 82)
Actual: Oklahoma State 41 – West Virginia 24 (margin error 18.2, total error 8.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:58 PM | 6.7 | 55.8 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:50 PM | 6.7 | 55.8 | 66% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:56 PM | 6.7 | 55.9 | 66% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:58 AM | 6.7 | 55.9 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:38 PM | 6.7 | 55.6 | 66% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:10 PM | 6.4 | 55.3 | 65% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:55 PM | 5.9 | 55.6 | 64% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:34 PM | 0.7 | 56.0 | 52% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:37:59 PM | 1.2 | 56.2 | 53% |