2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Jordan-Hare Stadium
Vanderbilt @ Auburn
Predicted scoreToss-up
Vanderbilt
26.3
Auburn
25.5
Auburn win probability: 48%
Margin (Auburn − Vanderbilt): -0.8 (80% range -21 to 19)
Total: 51.8 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Vanderbilt 15 – Auburn 21 (margin error 6.8, total error 15.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 24 | 28 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:45 PM | -2.2 | 53.1 | 44% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | -2.1 | 53.3 | 45% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:48 PM | -2.3 | 53.2 | 44% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:21 AM | -2.1 | 53.4 | 45% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:35 PM | -1.9 | 53.1 | 45% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:16 PM | -2.2 | 53.4 | 45% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:50 PM | -3.6 | 53.8 | 41% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:32 PM | -0.7 | 51.8 | 48% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:06 PM | -0.8 | 51.8 | 48% |