2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
South Florida @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreConfident
South Florida
36.3
Bowling Green
16.4
Bowling Green win probability: 11%
Margin (Bowling Green − South Florida): -19.8 (80% range -41 to 0)
Total: 52.7 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: South Florida 14 – Bowling Green 6 (margin error 11.8, total error 32.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 38 | 7 | 0.73% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.71% |
| 31 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 38 | 10 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:46 PM | -16.4 | 53.2 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | -16.3 | 53.1 | 16% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:46 PM | -16.5 | 53.2 | 15% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:26 AM | -16.5 | 53.2 | 15% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:44 PM | -16.3 | 52.9 | 16% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:53 PM | -17.6 | 53.2 | 13% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:02 PM | -16.0 | 52.6 | 16% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:40 PM | -19.8 | 52.3 | 11% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:05 PM | -19.8 | 52.7 | 11% |