2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
South Florida @ Bowling Green
Predicted scoreLikely
South Florida
34.8
Bowling Green
18.3
Bowling Green win probability: 15%
Margin (Bowling Green − South Florida): -16.5 (80% range -38 to 4)
Total: 53.2 (80% range 31 to 77)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 7 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.68% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.67% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 10 | 0.63% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:46 PM | -16.4 | 53.2 | 15% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:53 PM | -16.3 | 53.1 | 16% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:46 PM | -16.5 | 53.2 | 15% |