Predicted scoreLean
Louisiana
27.8
Charlotte
21.1
Charlotte win probability: 33%
Margin (Charlotte − Louisiana): -6.7 (80% range -26 to 13)
Total: 48.9 (80% range 27 to 73)
Actual: Louisiana 34 – Charlotte 7 (margin error 20.3, total error 7.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 14 | 0.80% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.79% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.73% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:47 PM | -6.2 | 48.7 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:55 PM | -6.4 | 48.6 | 34% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:49 PM | -6.2 | 49.6 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:29 AM | -6.2 | 49.5 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:42 PM | -6.6 | 48.8 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:55 PM | -6.3 | 49.1 | 34% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:04 PM | -4.7 | 48.5 | 38% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:39 PM | -7.0 | 48.9 | 32% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:02 PM | -6.7 | 48.9 | 33% |