2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yager Stadium
UConn @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
26.8
Miami (OH)
27.5
Miami (OH) win probability: 52%
Margin (Miami (OH) − UConn): 0.7 (80% range -20 to 21)
Total: 54.3 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.84% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 0.7 | 54.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | 0.7 | 54.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:49 PM | 0.7 | 54.3 | 52% |