2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Yager Stadium
UConn @ Miami (OH)
Predicted scoreToss-up
UConn
29.4
Miami (OH)
28.2
Miami (OH) win probability: 47%
Margin (Miami (OH) − UConn): -1.2 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 57.7 (80% range 34 to 83)
Actual: UConn 21 – Miami (OH) 24 (margin error 4.2, total error 12.7)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.67% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.59% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.58% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 0.7 | 54.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | 0.7 | 54.5 | 52% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:49 PM | 0.7 | 54.3 | 52% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:29 AM | 0.7 | 54.7 | 52% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:47 PM | 0.6 | 54.5 | 52% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:04 PM | 0.1 | 54.0 | 50% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:47 PM | -2.9 | 57.0 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:23 PM | -1.2 | 57.4 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:11 PM | -1.2 | 57.7 | 47% |