2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Davis Wade Stadium
Missouri @ Mississippi State
Predicted scoreToss-up
Missouri
27.0
Mississippi State
24.2
Mississippi State win probability: 43%
Margin (Mississippi State − Missouri): -2.8 (80% range -23 to 17)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 29 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.73% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:52 PM | -2.8 | 51.3 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:52 PM | -2.7 | 51.0 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:41 PM | -2.8 | 51.2 | 43% |