Predicted scoreToss-up
Ole Miss
30.1
Florida
29.9
Florida win probability: 49%
Margin (Florida − Ole Miss): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 21)
Total: 60.0 (80% range 35 to 86)
Actual: Ole Miss 28 – Florida 52 (margin error 24.2, total error 20.0)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 31 | 0.64% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.55% |
| 28 | 31 | 0.52% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:47 PM | -6.9 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:52 PM | -6.8 | 54.4 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:44 PM | -6.7 | 54.6 | 34% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:17 AM | -6.6 | 54.6 | 34% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:39 PM | -6.5 | 54.7 | 34% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:16 PM | -6.2 | 54.3 | 35% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:51 PM | -0.9 | 59.8 | 48% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:32 PM | -0.2 | 58.4 | 49% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:08 PM | -0.2 | 60.0 | 49% |