Predicted scoreToss-up
UCLA
24.9
Maryland
27.0
Maryland win probability: 55%
Margin (Maryland − UCLA): 2.1 (80% range -18 to 22)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: UCLA 54 – Maryland 3 (margin error 53.1, total error 5.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.72% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:51 PM | 3.5 | 52.4 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:56 PM | 3.3 | 52.4 | 59% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:54 PM | 3.4 | 52.1 | 59% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:54 AM | 3.4 | 52.3 | 59% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:44 PM | 3.3 | 52.1 | 58% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:03 PM | 3.1 | 52.5 | 58% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:12 PM | -1.0 | 51.4 | 47% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:26 PM | 2.3 | 52.0 | 55% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:13 PM | 2.1 | 51.9 | 55% |