2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ohio Stadium
Illinois @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreConfident
Illinois
15.2
Ohio State
35.7
Ohio State win probability: 91%
Margin (Ohio State − Illinois): 20.5 (80% range 0 to 41)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 31 | 0.84% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.79% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.75% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | 20.5 | 50.7 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | 20.4 | 51.1 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:01 PM | 20.5 | 50.9 | 91% |