2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Ohio Stadium
Illinois @ Ohio State
Predicted scoreConfident
Illinois
16.5
Ohio State
39.2
Ohio State win probability: 93%
Margin (Ohio State − Illinois): 22.7 (80% range 3 to 43)
Total: 55.7 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: Illinois 19 – Ohio State 42 (margin error 0.3, total error 5.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.84% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.68% |
| 10 | 35 | 0.66% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:53 PM | 20.5 | 50.7 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:58 PM | 20.4 | 51.1 | 91% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:28:01 PM | 20.5 | 50.9 | 91% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:24 AM | 20.5 | 51.1 | 91% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:46 PM | 20.5 | 51.1 | 91% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:59:01 PM | 20.0 | 51.1 | 90% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:09 PM | 21.8 | 54.1 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:36 PM | 22.5 | 54.9 | 92% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:15 PM | 22.7 | 55.7 | 93% |