2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Nippert Stadium
Kansas State @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreLean
Kansas State
28.9
Cincinnati
23.7
Cincinnati win probability: 37%
Margin (Cincinnati − Kansas State): -5.1 (80% range -25 to 14)
Total: 52.6 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Kansas State 26 – Cincinnati 31 (margin error 10.1, total error 4.4)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:47 PM | -3.1 | 54.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | -2.9 | 54.2 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:43 PM | -3.0 | 54.2 | 43% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:00 AM | -3.1 | 54.2 | 42% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:38 PM | -3.1 | 53.9 | 42% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:43 PM | -3.9 | 53.5 | 41% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:01 PM | -2.7 | 53.2 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:29 PM | -4.6 | 52.8 | 38% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:01 PM | -5.1 | 52.6 | 37% |