2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 4:00 AM · Nippert Stadium
Kansas State @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreToss-up
Kansas State
28.6
Cincinnati
25.6
Cincinnati win probability: 43%
Margin (Cincinnati − Kansas State): -3.0 (80% range -24 to 17)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 17 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:47 PM | -3.1 | 54.1 | 42% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:51 PM | -2.9 | 54.2 | 43% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:43 PM | -3.0 | 54.2 | 43% |