2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 2:30 AM · California Memorial Stadium
Clemson @ California
Predicted scoreToss-up
Clemson
27.8
California
25.6
California win probability: 45%
Margin (California − Clemson): -2.2 (80% range -22 to 18)
Total: 53.5 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Clemson 24 – California 10 (margin error 11.8, total error 19.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.70% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:46 PM | -6.9 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:49 PM | -7.0 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:38 PM | -7.0 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:13 AM | -7.2 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:33 PM | -7.0 | 54.8 | 33% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:47 PM | -7.2 | 54.9 | 33% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:44 PM | -3.2 | 54.4 | 43% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:43 PM | -1.5 | 53.7 | 47% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:19 PM | -2.2 | 53.5 | 45% |