2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 AM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Northwestern @ Indiana
Predicted scoreConfident
Northwestern
15.3
Indiana
38.2
Indiana win probability: 93%
Margin (Indiana − Northwestern): 22.9 (80% range 3 to 44)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 31 to 78)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 38 | 0.79% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 7 | 38 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.70% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | 22.8 | 53.2 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:49 PM | 22.9 | 53.4 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:37 PM | 22.9 | 53.4 | 93% |