2026 Week 4 · Sep 26, 2026, 12:00 AM · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Northwestern @ Indiana
Predicted scoreConfident
Northwestern
14.9
Indiana
38.2
Indiana win probability: 93%
Margin (Indiana − Northwestern): 23.3 (80% range 3 to 45)
Total: 53.1 (80% range 31 to 76)
Actual: Northwestern 23 – Indiana 29 (margin error 17.3, total error 1.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | 31 | 0.80% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 38 | 0.77% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:49 PM | 22.8 | 53.2 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:49 PM | 22.9 | 53.4 | 93% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:37 PM | 22.9 | 53.4 | 93% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:12 AM | 23.0 | 53.4 | 93% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:33 PM | 22.7 | 53.4 | 92% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:46 PM | 23.0 | 54.2 | 93% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:43 PM | 22.3 | 54.2 | 92% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:44 PM | 23.5 | 53.6 | 93% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:20 PM | 23.3 | 53.1 | 93% |