2026 Week 4 · Sep 24, 2026, 11:30 PM · Brooks Stadium (SC)
Liberty @ Coastal Carolina
Predicted scoreToss-up
Liberty
26.9
Coastal Carolina
25.0
Coastal Carolina win probability: 45%
Margin (Coastal Carolina − Liberty): -1.9 (80% range -21 to 18)
Total: 51.9 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Liberty 34 – Coastal Carolina 17 (margin error 15.1, total error 0.9)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.78% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 24 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:47 PM | -1.1 | 50.6 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:48 PM | -1.1 | 50.5 | 47% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:35 PM | -0.9 | 50.5 | 47% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:45:10 AM | -1.0 | 50.7 | 47% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:31 PM | -1.2 | 50.7 | 47% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:44 PM | -1.1 | 50.7 | 47% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:53:23 PM | -2.3 | 51.7 | 44% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:45 PM | -1.6 | 51.8 | 46% |
| 9/20/2026, 2:38:21 PM | -1.9 | 51.9 | 45% |