Predicted scoreLikely
Purdue
22.9
UCLA
33.3
UCLA win probability: 74%
Margin (UCLA − Purdue): 10.4 (80% range -10 to 31)
Total: 56.2 (80% range 33 to 80)
Actual: Purdue 38 – UCLA 52 (margin error 3.6, total error 33.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
| 14 | 24 | 0.60% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.60% |
| 24 | 31 | 0.60% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:42 PM | 5.3 | 54.1 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:48 PM | 5.4 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:34 PM | 5.4 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:28 AM | 5.4 | 54.3 | 63% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:11 PM | 5.7 | 54.3 | 64% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:07 PM | 5.7 | 53.8 | 64% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:05 PM | 9.5 | 53.7 | 73% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:55 PM | 10.4 | 56.2 | 74% |