2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Lanny and Sharon Martin Stadium
Colorado @ Northwestern
Predicted scoreLean
Colorado
22.8
Northwestern
28.3
Northwestern win probability: 64%
Margin (Northwestern − Colorado): 5.5 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 51.2 (80% range 28 to 76)
Actual: Colorado 7 – Northwestern 41 (margin error 28.5, total error 3.2)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.71% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.69% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.62% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:36 PM | 8.1 | 52.1 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:45 PM | 8.2 | 52.1 | 70% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:24 PM | 8.0 | 52.0 | 70% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:20 AM | 8.1 | 52.0 | 70% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:16 PM | 8.3 | 52.2 | 70% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:16 PM | 7.9 | 52.0 | 69% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:37 PM | 7.1 | 50.2 | 67% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:57 PM | 5.5 | 51.2 | 64% |