Predicted scoreToss-up
LSU
26.8
Ole Miss
26.6
Ole Miss win probability: 50%
Margin (Ole Miss − LSU): -0.2 (80% range -21 to 20)
Total: 53.4 (80% range 30 to 78)
Actual: LSU 24 – Ole Miss 32 (margin error 8.2, total error 2.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.86% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 31 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 17 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:38 PM | 6.9 | 53.0 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:45 PM | 7.0 | 53.3 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:28 PM | 6.9 | 53.2 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:21 AM | 7.0 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:17 PM | 6.9 | 53.1 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:17 PM | 6.8 | 52.8 | 66% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:40 PM | 0.5 | 54.3 | 51% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:20 PM | -0.2 | 53.4 | 50% |