2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · Canvas Stadium
BYU @ Colorado State
Predicted scoreLikely
BYU
33.6
Colorado State
20.1
Colorado State win probability: 20%
Margin (Colorado State − BYU): -13.4 (80% range -35 to 7)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: BYU 41 – Colorado State 23 (margin error 4.6, total error 10.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | 14 | 0.77% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.74% |
| 38 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 28 | 17 | 0.66% |
| 38 | 24 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:32 PM | -15.2 | 53.0 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:46 PM | -15.3 | 53.2 | 17% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:26 PM | -15.1 | 52.9 | 17% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:22 AM | -15.3 | 53.2 | 16% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:16 PM | -15.2 | 53.3 | 17% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:15 PM | -14.8 | 53.1 | 17% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:40 PM | -11.0 | 52.7 | 24% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:58 PM | -13.4 | 53.7 | 20% |