2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:30 PM · SECU Stadium
Virginia Tech @ Maryland
Predicted scoreToss-up
Virginia Tech
25.6
Maryland
28.3
Maryland win probability: 57%
Margin (Maryland − Virginia Tech): 2.7 (80% range -18 to 24)
Total: 53.9 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Virginia Tech 35 – Maryland 26 (margin error 11.7, total error 7.1)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 0.76% |
| 17 | 24 | 0.63% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.62% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.61% |
| 24 | 21 | 0.61% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:35 PM | 1.6 | 54.4 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:45 PM | 1.6 | 54.5 | 54% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:25 PM | 1.5 | 54.2 | 54% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:17 AM | 1.6 | 54.3 | 54% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:16 PM | 1.5 | 54.1 | 54% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:17 PM | 2.9 | 54.8 | 57% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:38 PM | 2.1 | 52.8 | 55% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:55:57 PM | 2.7 | 53.9 | 57% |