2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 11:00 PM · Rice Stadium
Western Michigan @ Rice
Predicted scoreLikely
Western Michigan
28.5
Rice
20.0
Rice win probability: 29%
Margin (Rice − Western Michigan): -8.5 (80% range -28 to 11)
Total: 48.5 (80% range 27 to 72)
Actual: Western Michigan 28 – Rice 21 (margin error 1.5, total error 0.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | 17 | 0.89% |
| 31 | 17 | 0.72% |
| 24 | 14 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.69% |
| 24 | 10 | 0.69% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:39 PM | -7.4 | 49.7 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:44 PM | -7.3 | 49.5 | 32% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:21 PM | -7.2 | 49.2 | 32% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:14 AM | -7.0 | 49.4 | 33% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:19 PM | -7.4 | 49.5 | 32% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:24 PM | -7.4 | 50.7 | 32% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:34 PM | -7.4 | 50.1 | 32% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:17 PM | -8.5 | 48.5 | 29% |