2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:15 PM · Williams-Brice Stadium
Mississippi State @ South Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Mississippi State
22.0
South Carolina
28.9
South Carolina win probability: 67%
Margin (South Carolina − Mississippi State): 6.9 (80% range -13 to 27)
Total: 50.9 (80% range 28 to 75)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.80% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.65% |
| 17 | 17 | 0.64% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | 6.8 | 50.8 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:42 PM | 6.9 | 50.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:15 PM | 6.9 | 50.9 | 67% |