2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:15 PM · Williams-Brice Stadium
Mississippi State @ South Carolina
Predicted scoreLean
Mississippi State
24.6
South Carolina
29.8
South Carolina win probability: 63%
Margin (South Carolina − Mississippi State): 5.2 (80% range -14 to 25)
Total: 54.4 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Mississippi State 41 – South Carolina 34 (margin error 12.2, total error 20.6)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.70% |
| 24 | 24 | 0.68% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.65% |
| 21 | 24 | 0.62% |
| 17 | 21 | 0.59% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:40 PM | 6.8 | 50.8 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:42 PM | 6.9 | 50.9 | 67% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:15 PM | 6.9 | 50.9 | 67% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:49 AM | 6.8 | 50.8 | 66% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:31 PM | 6.8 | 50.8 | 67% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:06 PM | 6.9 | 51.4 | 67% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:27 PM | 8.4 | 53.5 | 70% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:13 PM | 5.2 | 54.4 | 63% |