2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 8:00 PM · McLane Stadium
Louisiana Tech @ Baylor
Predicted scoreConfident
Louisiana Tech
17.1
Baylor
34.4
Baylor win probability: 86%
Margin (Baylor − Louisiana Tech): 17.3 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 51.5 (80% range 30 to 76)
Actual: Louisiana Tech 19 – Baylor 36 (margin error 0.3, total error 3.5)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.78% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 7 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.70% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.68% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:31 PM | 13.5 | 53.7 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:41 PM | 13.4 | 53.8 | 80% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:13 PM | 13.4 | 53.8 | 80% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:47 AM | 13.4 | 53.7 | 80% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:30 PM | 13.4 | 53.7 | 80% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:04 PM | 13.7 | 54.0 | 80% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:26 PM | 16.4 | 53.3 | 85% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:13 PM | 17.3 | 51.5 | 86% |