2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · TQL Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreLikely
Miami (OH)
21.9
Cincinnati
31.8
Cincinnati win probability: 73%
Margin (Cincinnati − Miami (OH)): 9.8 (80% range -10 to 30)
Total: 53.7 (80% range 31 to 79)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 24 | 0.77% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.66% |
| 14 | 21 | 0.66% |
| 21 | 31 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:32 PM | 10.0 | 53.3 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 9.9 | 53.6 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:10 PM | 9.8 | 53.7 | 73% |