2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · TQL Stadium
Miami (OH) @ Cincinnati
Predicted scoreConfident
Miami (OH)
18.1
Cincinnati
36.1
Cincinnati win probability: 87%
Margin (Cincinnati − Miami (OH)): 18.0 (80% range -3 to 38)
Total: 54.2 (80% range 31 to 79)
Actual: Miami (OH) 31 – Cincinnati 35 (margin error 14.0, total error 11.8)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 38 | 0.78% |
| 7 | 28 | 0.74% |
| 17 | 31 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.72% |
| 10 | 28 | 0.71% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:32 PM | 10.0 | 53.3 | 74% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:40 PM | 9.9 | 53.6 | 73% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:10 PM | 9.8 | 53.7 | 73% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:42 AM | 9.7 | 53.7 | 73% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:27 PM | 10.1 | 53.6 | 74% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:40 PM | 10.5 | 53.3 | 75% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:23 PM | 17.2 | 54.2 | 86% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:09 PM | 18.0 | 54.2 | 87% |