2026 Week 3 · Sep 19, 2026, 7:30 PM · Rice-Eccles Stadium
Utah State @ Utah
Predicted scoreConfident
Utah State
17.2
Utah
36.2
Utah win probability: 88%
Margin (Utah − Utah State): 19.0 (80% range -1 to 40)
Total: 53.3 (80% range 31 to 78)
Actual: Utah State 0 – Utah 33 (margin error 14.0, total error 20.3)
Most likely scorelines
| Away | Home | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | 31 | 0.83% |
| 10 | 31 | 0.76% |
| 14 | 31 | 0.75% |
| 17 | 38 | 0.73% |
| 14 | 38 | 0.65% |
Score distribution
A smooth approximation from the simulator's margin/total moments — see the methodology page for why this isn't the raw simulated draws.
Darker = more likely. The dot marks the predicted score; the dashed line is where home and away are tied.
Prediction movement through the week
| Generated | Pred. margin | Pred. total | Home win prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/13/2026, 8:54:43 PM | 18.9 | 55.4 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 1:04:39 PM | 19.0 | 55.4 | 88% |
| 9/3/2026, 2:27:09 PM | 18.9 | 55.5 | 88% |
| 9/4/2026, 10:44:44 AM | 18.9 | 55.4 | 88% |
| 9/6/2026, 2:02:29 PM | 19.0 | 55.5 | 88% |
| 9/8/2026, 5:58:00 PM | 18.9 | 55.6 | 88% |
| 9/11/2026, 12:52:22 PM | 18.0 | 55.8 | 87% |
| 9/13/2026, 2:56:09 PM | 19.0 | 53.3 | 88% |